The Fall Forecast: Cooling Temps, Hot Market Moves
Fall 2025’s real estate market theme is perhaps best summed up as “wait and see”. The spring market was flat. Experts have mixed reports about the national average home prices for the remainder of the year. Most (CREA, CMHC, etc.) predict a drop between 1.7 – 3.2%, but Royal LePage is an outlier, still echoing their early-year prediction of 3.5-5% price increase.
There are some notable regional differences. In Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, they could see sales at historically high levels and faster price growth. Big Ontario and BC market declines are overshadowing these numbers and lowering the national average.
The biggest factors in the home-buying market this fall
- Affordability: the high cost of living – especially buying a home – is more than many new buyers can afford. The average MLS price for a home is currently nearly $680,000. Homebuyers need big down payments, longer term loans, and will pay much more interest over the lifetime of the mortgage – none of which are appealing. Many are saying no thanks.
- US trade disputes: 49% of prospective buyers have chosen to hold off on a purchase because of impending tariffs and their ripple effects. A resolution could lead to a quick market turnaround, but there’s no way to know what’s coming.
- Economic cooling: unemployment, slower population growth and a mild recession are all contributing to a slower fall housing market.
- Rental market: Condo completions are surging, flooding the market and finally cooling off demand. People have more rental options, with potentially lower rates, which negates the need to buy. Also of note is slower household formation, meaning fewer people are looking to move out of their parents’ homes and in with their new spouse or partner.
- New builds: Builders are seeing reduced demand and cutting back production accordingly. Current tariffs are increasing the material costs for new homes, another reason to delay starts. The CMHC is predicting only 226,600 home starts for 2025.
What about rates?
The Bank of Canada resumed easing with a rate cut in September, following a pause since April. Market watchers still anticipate the possibility of one additional reduction before year-end, which could provide further momentum and help turn the housing market around.
Initially, the CMHC was estimating 5-year fixed rates between 5.3-5.7% this year, but with that now out the window and lower rates currently available, the remainder of 2025 is the ideal time to get a mortgage for anyone who doesn’t already have one or imminently needs to renew. With a potential Bank of Canada rate cut looming, variable rates are also still attractive.
Is anyone opting to buy this fall?
Yes! Resale homes are gaining market share, with somewhere between 464,600 and 524,600 homes expected to change hands in 2025.
There are also two main buyer demographics:
- Millennials: With remote work declining, they need to buy homes closer to their jobs. Urban market resale homes will likely be their prime targets.
- Renewals: Those needing to renew their mortgages will consider their actual needs vs their existing home. Downsizing to save costs or upsizing to accommodate changing family needs are big factors. This is the ideal time to make a move without (mortgage) penalties.
What does all this mean?
We’ll all be waiting to see what happens. If you want to buy, there is more supply and the lowest rates we’ve seen in a while. If you want to sell, the resale market is your friend.
Written By: Mike Bohte
